diff --git a/roles/letsencrypt/tasks/main.yml b/roles/letsencrypt/tasks/main.yml
index a61a7c6bbc..19391db679 100644
--- a/roles/letsencrypt/tasks/main.yml
+++ b/roles/letsencrypt/tasks/main.yml
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@
   run_once: true
   register: certbot_output
   check_mode: no
-  changed_when: "not ('not yet due for renewal' in certbot_output.stderr)"
+  changed_when: "not ('not yet due for renewal' in certbot_output.stdout)"
   tags:
   - letsencrypt